OPPONENTS TO PEACE
This is a battle of ideologies and stability. It must be a battle between those that want peace on both sides, and those that do not. This battle will take place locally and internationally across all domains.
COMPOSITION
Opponents are State and Non-State Actors from both sides, they are well placed, experienced, trained, and have large bases of support to draw from. The numbers of assets who can be potentially disruptive to the peace process is well into the thousands. Their disruption attempts can be the result of organizations or individuals.
CAPABILITIES
These State and Non-State Actors can engage in disruptive operations across all domains. From Military, Cyber, Political, Economic, Information, Etc. The actor with the most capabilities to disrupt peace is the Iranians and their controlled proxies. Most attempts at creating violence will be through small-scale attacks. They will likely be lightly equipped with limited capabilities to hold terrain in the face of defense forces. Their attacks may be small, but will be amplified by the media. This could be enough to move them closer to their objectives.
OPPONENTS MOST PROBABLE COURSE OF ACTION
Israeli Side Maximalists
- PreCeasefire- Seek to win a decisive victory in the Gaza Strip and increase security in the West Bank. They can then ensure a peace heavily in favor of Israel.
- PostCeasefire- Stall the peace process to ensure it fails. They can then use this to justify why the Palestinians cannot be negotiated with. Likely to encourage more settlements of the West Bank. Likely to encourage settler violence against Palestinians. Likely to push for over-reactive measures in response to any attacks.
Palestinian Side Maximalists
- PreCeasefire- Seek to continue to tie down and exhaust IDF Forces. A ceasefire can be interpreted as a victory for Hamas. Especially if it comes before the Israelis complete their operations in Gaza. This may be a reason they took hostages as an insurance card if their allies did not rally behind them to attack Israel. Civilian casualties only aid their cause among their fighters, the civilian population, and the international community.
- PostCeasefire- Seek to derail the peace process. Encourage violence and call for violence, in order to keep dreams of maximalist goals alive. Likely to over-react to any attacks by Israelis.
OPPONENTS MOST DEADLY COURSE OF ACTION
Israeli Side Maximalists
- PreCeasefire- Preemptive Strike on Hezbollah. Potentially start a regional war to bring the U.S. in to destroy Iran. Worst case scenario could see the regional war begin a global war. Just a regional war could set conditions to see mass deportations, expulsions, ethnic cleansing.
- PostCeasefire- overreact to start a war with the new Palestinian State. Ending the Peace Process.
Palestinian Side Maximalists
- PreCeasefire- Seek to start a regional war in hopes of bringing in Iran and its allies to destroy Israel. This would likely draw in the US, and the regional war can turn global. This could lead to mass deportations, expulsions, ethnic cleansing.
- PostCeasefire- Large terror attacks, seeking to start a war between Israel and Palestine to destroy the peace process.